Nowadays demographers believe the number of population can rise to more than 9 billion in the next 50 years. We believe that human population increased after World War II when the population of less developed nations began to accelerate dramatically.
As a result, world population entered the twentieth century with approximately 1. In the next 50 years the annual growth will take place in the less developed countries Asia, Africa, and Latin America whose population growth rates are much higher than those in more developed countries. In some European countries population rates are negative Hungary, Estonia, Russia, Ukraine and others.
Some demographers suppose, Africa is expected to capture the greatest share in the world population. Population growth in more developed countries is already low and is expected to stabilize. According to the most recent UN estimates, between now and world population growth will be generated exclusively in developing countries. However, human population of the developed countries will decline. According to the most recent medium variant UN population projection these ten countries will contribute most to world population growth over the next 50 years.
As far as we know Europe and Africa are each home of about one eighth of the human population. This is expected to change significantly in the future. Hence, we can expect a dramatic change in the global balance of population — in some 50 years only Western Africa will have more population than all the countries of South America, the Caribbean and Oceania combined. As far as we noticed population has a tendency to increase in the developing countries because of several reasons.
The first argument is hunger. The main reason for hunger is poverty. The poor are usually hungry, and there is very little money that can be spent on agricultural development. Another reason for hunger is population. Because these assumptions lack physical data, they detract from the credibility of his argument. His idea to deglobalize the problem, although practical in the way it divides based on cultural truths, neglects several important issues. Firstly, he fails to compensate for the fact that some world governments will not have the means to fulfill a solution without help from the global community.
For example, several African nations, although growing at the fastest rate in the world, will not have government resources to dedicate large sums of money to family planning and birth reduction. Only with monetary and physical help from other members of the global community will it be feasible for these nations to implement a program and help eradicate the population problem.
If the problem is deglobalized, as Hardin suggests, the Western world will essentially be turning its back on the problem it created. The demographic transition theory, which Gerard Piel supports in his article, offers up a more educated solution to the population problem. The theory claims population growth is related to economic achievements; the more advanced countries increase their life spans, enabling more people to mature to the reproductive years, which in turn leads to an increase in population growth.
The growth is then kept in check by technological advances, namely birth control, but also by the fact that a smaller family is ideal since agriculture is not the main source of income and more people is no longer more help, just more mouths to feed. This would bring the poorest 20 percent out of poverty. As an example of the process of demographic transition, Piel, like Hardin, turns to China.
However, he accredits the decline in population growth to the revolution that turned China from a politically isolated country into the ninth largest economy in the world. With the doubling of the GDP China saw its literacy rate skyrocket, the life expectancy extend, infant mortality drop drastically and, in , the fertility rate approach the zero-growth rate. Although he does not blatantly support the ideas of the consumptionist theory, which believes that the consumption distribution supports inequality, which then causes overpopulation, his argument includes lots of support for the idea.
Some of his most blatant support is when he discusses the discrepancies of wealth between transnational corporations and the countries that they exploit. If the world binds together, pools their wealth and propels underprivileged countries through the demographic transition, as Piel suggests, it is possible to begin to slow population growth. But this advancement will be negated if the world does not acknowledge that the consumerist appetite of select countries is a major reason behind the population problem.
Western countries believe they can continue to shift the blame from themselves to poor women in poor countries, essentially scapegoating the vulnerable. Eventually, though, it will be realized that this problem can be ignored and hidden, but it will not dissipate until someone faces it. The longer it goes unaddressed, unmentioned by those too embarrassed by their own actions or those whose voices are powerless to make an impact, the worse the global population problem will become.
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